2008 Team Projection
Written by Mike on February 17, 2008 – 4:05 am -As we all know, the Cardinals finished under .500 in 2007, with a record of 78-84. It was the team’s first losing season since 1999, when they went 75-86. Most Cardinal fans aren’t expecting a World Championship in ‘08, and many aren’t holding out for a division title either. I’d guess most of us would be happy to be in the hunt come September, and finish with at least 81 wins to avoid back-to-back losing seasons.
Previewing the NL Central
Written by Mike on February 6, 2008 – 7:50 pm -It’s time to take a closer look around the rest of the division. Now that we’re just about a week away from the start of Spring Training, most roster shaping has been completed, and we’ll have a pretty good idea of who we’ll be competing against in the Central.
First, let’s take a quick look at the Cubbies. They’ve added to their already potent offense with the pick up of outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, their first Japanese player in franchise history. He, along with Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and young catcher Geovany Soto, should provide plenty of pop for the cursed club. They’ve added veteran starting pitcher Jon Lieber as well. The rotation should continue to impress in ‘08. Lieber joins staff ace Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly, and former Cardinal, Jason Marquis. Look for the Cubs to be right there at the end. Skipper Lou Piniella, now in his second year with Chicago, will surely have his team in contention for the division title again.
Milwaukee had a very good team in ‘07. Now that the youngsters have another year under their belt, they should be able to stay focused for the entire season. Their offense will once again be led by first baseman Prince Fielder, who hit 50 home runs last season. Newcomer Mike Cameron will join Fielder, Ryan Braun, Bill Hall, and J.J. Hardy, as the run producers in the lineup. The Brewers should have a healthy Ben Sheets atop their rotation, followed by some combination of talent and durability in Yovani Gallardo, Jeff Suppan, Carlos Villanueva, and others. The Brewers also added Eric Gagne to assume the closers role. He and Derrick Turnbow could prove to be as effective as the Cards’ eighth and ninth inning duo last year. There’s no reason to think that Milwaukee won’t take the ‘08 race right down to the wire.
The Houston Astros have just as tough a lineup as anybody. J.R. Towles should take the reigns at catcher after hitting .375 in 40 at-bats last year. Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada, Hunter Pence, and Ty Wiggington should have no trouble driving in runs in Playskool (I mean Minute Maid) Park. Besides their new-look left side of the infield, two other everyday players have joined the Astros. Both Kazuo Matsui and Michael Bourn are capable of batting leadoff. Houston’s pitching, however, doesn’t look so great. Other than ace Roy Oswalt, the rotation appears to be a short list of mediocrity. If we as Cards fans have learned anything from last season, it’s that you’ll only go as far as your starting pitching will take you. While the Astros will certainly score a lot of runs in ‘08, they’re likely to allow a lot too. I’d guess they’ll finish well behind Chicago and Milwaukee.
It’s tough to gauge what to expect from Cincinnati. The Reds have some talented ball players. Most are carryovers from last season when they couldn’t put it all together. They’ll again be led by the bats of Adam Dunn, Brandon Phillips, and Hall of Fame bound Ken Griffey Jr. The starting rotation, which includes Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Homer Bailey, doesn’t look too bad either. With manager Dusty Baker now calling the shots, maybe Cincinnati can make it an interesting race.
Then, there’s Pittsburgh. They haven’t had a winning season in 15 years, and did virtually nothing to improve their club this offseason. They hope outfielder Jason Bay can have a bounce back year. Despite the good arms of Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell, the Pirates are projected to finish in the cellar once again in 2008. But, you never know. That’s why they play the games.
Where do the Cardinals fit? That’s a question that’s impossible to answer. Last season, the Cards had a never-ending list of injuries, including a career ending one to Juan Encarnacion. Combine that with the death of pitcher Josh Hancock, the arrest of their manager in Spring Training, and the substance abuse that kept Scott Spiezio off the field, and the Redbirds should have finished last. They didn’t. The NL Central was a three horse race all the way to September. No manager gets more from his players than Tony La Russa. So any team with him at the helm has a shot.2008 Team Outlook - Part 4
Written by Mike on January 20, 2008 – 12:58 am -
With under a month now until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, it’s time to take a look at the Cardinals starting rotation. I’ve already discussed the bullpen, both the infield and the outfield, and the team’s payroll, so check them out if you missed them.
2008 Payroll
Written by Mike on January 9, 2008 – 2:35 am -In today’s Post Dispatch, there was a Derrick Goold article about the Cardinals and their arbitration eligible players, Yadier Molina, Todd Wellemeyer, and Rick Ankiel. In it, he explains the uniqueness of the Ankiel case, and reports that a long term contract for Molina may be in the works. View the article, in its entirety, here.
I decided to roughly estimate what those players’ salaries for ‘08 might be, and put them together with the rest of the ballclub to see approximately where the Cards currently stand with payroll. To start last season, it was around $90 million. Remember earlier in the offseason, Dewitt said they’d be willing to increase team payroll to somewhere between $110 and $115 million.
Currently, a starting rotation of Wainwright, Looper, Clement, Pineiro, and Reyes, would cost about $12.9 million. Add in the later additions of Mulder and Carpenter for $17 million, and Clement’s incentives ($5.25 million if he were to pitch 200 innings), and we have $35.15 million.
Next, a starting infield of Molina, Pujols, Kennedy, Izturis, and Rolen would cost around $35.55 million. Couple that with only $1.85 million for an outfield of Duncan, Schumaker, and Ankiel to get $37.4 million.
Then, figure about $5.5 million for a bench of Larue, Miles, Spiezio, Ludwick, and Barton.
Now, a possible bullpen of Isringhausen, Springer, Franklin, Flores, Johnson, Thompson, and Wellemeyer would cost close to $16.5 million.
Finally, add $6.5 million for Encarnacion, and leave out Ryan, Kinney, and other fringe players.
This puts the Cardinals payroll (by my estimates) at just over $101 million, which gives Dewitt some wiggle room for another acquisition or possibly to use in a trade near the deadline. So, even after getting out from under most of the Edmonds contract, there’s not a lot left to spend. Barring another deal sometime between now and the end of Spring Training, it looks like this might be the team we see on Opening Day. You can view each individual players’ salary here.
2008 Team Outlook - Part 3
Written by Mike on January 3, 2008 – 3:28 am -
I think it’s time to continue our piece by piece analysis of this years ball club. I’ve already discussed the bullpen and the infield. It seems now that the outfield is pretty well set, so let’s take a look.
2008 Team Outlook - Part 2
Written by Mike on October 23, 2007 – 11:49 pm -
As the offseason trudges on, and the speculation on the Cardinals’ roster continues, we extend our discussion of the team’s needs and luxuries. This week I’ll take a look at the infield. If you missed the evaluation of the bullpen, check it out here.
Barring any trades, most of the infield from last season remains intact. The look of the everyday players, however, might not resemble the ‘07 squad much. The Cardinals suffered through a ton of injuries last year, and had only one player on the entire roster that appeared in more than 120 games.
That player was Albert Pujols. It was no surprise that Albert led the team last season in nearly every offensive category, as well as played a gold-glove caliber defense at first base. His first seven seasons in the league can only be compared to the likes of Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Pujols played through a lot of pain late last year, and still put up amazing numbers. I expect much of the same consistency in ‘08, but wouldn’t be surprised if he had another MVP type season. As one of the best players in the game, he still makes a somewhat reasonable $16 million next year.
The everyday catcher will once again be Yadier Molina. Molina has quickly become one of the best defensive catchers in the game, and completely shuts down the opposition’s running game. Although any offense that he generates would be considered a bonus, Molina vastly improved last season, finishing with a .275 average, and 6 homers. More than likely, he’ll hit in the seven hole. I’d like to see him locked up long term, as he’s arbitration eligible, and still just 25 years old.
Second base, will be Adam Kennedy’s to lose. He had the worst season of his career in ‘07, hitting .219 in 279 at-bats. He was signed to a three year deal last offseason, and is still owed another $7.5 million, plus bonuses over the next two years. Kennedy should have every chance to regain his past form. He’s also the only left-handed hitting infielder. I imagine the Cardinals will have a back up plan in place come Spring Training, but I doubt Adam will be as bad in ‘08 as he was last season.
Seven time Gold Glove winner, Scott Rolen, will be back at third base, despite the issues that he and Tony La Russa have had. Derrick Goold, from the St. Louis Post Dispatch, has more insight on that situation here. Rolen has had some lingering shoulder injuries for the past few seasons, and had another clean-up surgery recently, in hopes to be ready again in the spring. I hope he can return to his previous form, and overcome the diminished power caused by the sore shoulder. Still, a less than 100% Scott Rolen is better than many third basemen out there. He needs to play up to his $12 million salary.
That leaves the shortstop position. David Eckstein is a free-agent, and the Cardinals don’t have a lot in-house to replace him. Aaron Miles and Brendan Ryan split most of the playing time at short during Eckstein’s time on the DL, but neither are considered everyday players. There has been some talk of re-signing David, as well as some chatter about going after former Redbird, Edgar Renteria. Without Eckstein, the Cards are also without a lead-off hitter, so the situation is further complicated. The guys at Viva El Birdos have done an excellent job at evaluating the pros and cons of an Eckstein return. Check it out here. Aside from starting pitching, I think SS is the most pressing need for the Cardinals this offseason.
Overall, I expect the team to have a good infield. Errors were a problem last season, on a normally strong defensive ball club. I imagine that will be addressed thoroughly in Spring Training, and we’ll see more of the slick fielding Cardinal infield that we’re used to. I’m also very intrigued about the opening at short, and can’t wait to hear the solution.
2008 Team Outlook - Part 1
Written by Mike on October 16, 2007 – 8:30 pm -
What do you do this time of year, when your favorite team isn’t in the playoffs? We Cardinal fans haven’t had this problem very often during the Tony La Russa era. When Colorado finished their sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks last night, and we all had to relinquish the title of National League Champions, the time to really start thinking about next season’s roster began. For me, it probably began before the ‘07 season even started. I’ll start taking a detailed look at the Cards’ roster, examine who is under the team’s control, and speculate possible options to fill the empty slots. I figure to keep this post from being too long, I’ll break it down into parts, examining only one component of the club at a time. Because of the two recent signings, let’s start with the bullpen.
In 2007, the Cardinals used a total of 25 pitchers, and only 4 of those were never used in relief. That stat really tells how terrible the starting staff was. At times the bullpen seemed to be the only bright spot on the team. Later, in the second half, the pen had a few troubles, due to being overworked, and fell back down to earth. They finished 30-12, with a 4.07 ERA, good enough for 17th in the majors.
The Cardinals generally prefer to carry 12 pitchers, which means 7 relievers. We know that closer Jason Isringhausen is returning. He had a stellar year, converting 32 of his 34 saves, while compiling a 2.48 ERA. Although he had limited save opportunities, he did appear in 63 games, and struck out 54 batters in 65 1/3 innings, while only walking 28. These numbers were far better than his pre-surgery ones of ‘06. Having Isringhausen back for next season was a no brainer, and he should continue to experience similar success.
Back in July, the Cardinals signed right-handed setup man, Ryan Franklin , to an extension. He too had a great 2007 season, pitching in 69 games, and finishing with a 3.04 earned run average. Although he was a former starter with Seattle, he hasn’t started a game since 2005. His career ERA is 4.25, much higher than last season’s performance. I’d have to think that’s closer to what we’ll see in ‘08.
Russ Springer, also a right-hander, will be back next season as well. The team just gave him a new, one-year deal worth $3.5 million to be a middle reliever. He and Franklin should bridge the gap to Isringhausen quite nicely. I’ve already discussed Springer further here.
The Cardinals already control two lefties. Randy Flores, threw 55 innings, and had an ERA of 4.25 last season, while Tyler Johnson threw only 38, due to some time spent on the disabled list. His ERA was 4.03. Barring a trade, I expect both will be in the pen again next season. The club doesn’t have any major league ready left-handers in the system. Both Troy Cate, and Randy Keisler pitched in limited action in ‘07, and have since been designated for assignment.
Here’s how it looks thus far:
1. Isringhausen R
2. Franklin R
3. Springer R
4. Flores L
5. Johnson L
6. ?
7. ?
That leaves several to compete for the final two spots. Under team control, Brad Thompson, Todd Wellemeyer, Kelvin Jimenez, Brian Falkenborg, Andy Cavazos, and Dennis Dove, all spent time in last year’s pen. Josh Kinney, didn’t pitch in ‘07 due to injury, but will be given every opportunity to earn a spot if healthy. He played an important role during the championship run last October. Mitchell Boggs, who is currently pitching in the Arizona Fall League, and Christopher Perez, the 22 year old closer out of the University of Miami, could also be considered, although neither is on the 40-man roster as of yet. Troy Percival is likely headed elsewhere to to be a closer, and I’d rather not see any more of Scott Spiezio or Aaron Miles on the mound next year.
I’d say at least one of the spots should be for a long-relief guy. One that could be used as an occasional spot starter if neccessary. That could be Thompson or Wellemeyer, or both.
If no relievers outside the organization are brought in, I’d assume the combined salaries of the seven to be somewhere around $16 million.
Overall, I expect the bullpen to be a strength again in ‘08. If the Cardinals can solve their rotation troubles, the pen will be less fatigued, and should be better than the group from ‘07.
